February delivered something we have not seen before on Oʻahu: a record-setting median single-family home price of $1,205,000 — the highest in the island's history — at the same time that mortgage rates slipped below 6% for the first time since September 2022. Those two headlines sound like they should cancel each other out. They did not. Instead, they created a month where every segment of the market moved in a slightly different direction, and understanding the details matters more than reading the headline.
⚡ Quick Take
- Single-family median hit an all-time record of $1,205,000 (+1.7% year over year) while condos held steady at $500,000 (+1.2%) (Source: Honolulu Board of Realtors, Feb 2026)
- Mortgage rates fell to 5.98% on February 26 — below 6% for the first time since September 2022, down from 6.76% a year prior (Source: Freddie Mac PMMS)
- Single-family homes sold in a median of just 17 days (down from 23 a year ago) with 25% selling above asking price
- Condo market continued softening: 6.0 months of supply, DOM up to 56 days, and only 12% selling above asking
- The sub-$1M single-family segment is evaporating — inventory in the $500K–$999K range dropped 30.9% year over year while luxury listings above $1.7M grew 24.1%
Big Picture: A Record That Tells Two Stories
The $1,205,000 median is a new milestone, but it hides a structural shift happening underneath. The affordable end of the single-family market is disappearing. Inventory between $500K and $999K — the range most first-time buyers and military families shop — dropped 30.9% from a year ago, while listings above $1.7M expanded by 24.1%. In plain English, the homes most people can afford are getting harder to find, while the homes most people cannot afford are multiplying.
Meanwhile, the condo market sits at 6.0 months of supply — the threshold where economists start calling a market "balanced." For buyers who have been squeezed out of single-family homes, this is the window. More choices, more negotiating room, and sellers who are actually listening to offers below asking.
Single-Family Homes: Record Price, Shrinking Supply
| Metric | Feb 2026 | Feb 2025 | Change |
|---|
| Median price | **$1,205,000** | $1,185,000 | +1.7% |
| Closed sales | **177** | 167 | +6.0% |
| Median days on market | **17 days** | 23 days | -26% |
| Active inventory | **673** | ~728 | -7.6% |
| New listings | **284** | ~281 | +1.1% |
| Pending sales | **244** | ~233 | +4.7% |
| Sold above asking | **25%** | — | — |
(Source: Honolulu Board of Realtors, Feb 2026; Honolulu Star-Advertiser, March 7, 2026)
Homes are selling faster, for more money, with less to choose from. It is a market that rewards buyers who are prepared and move decisively — and we help every client be ready before they start shopping.
The luxury segment is telling its own story. Single-family homes above $1.5M saw 34 closed sales — up 21.4% from January — at a median of $2.35M. Nearly 38% of those sold at or above asking. Victoria Place and Park Lane continued to anchor the high-rise luxury condo segment.
Where Prices Landed by Neighborhood
| Area | Median SF Price (Feb 2026) | YoY |
|---|
| Kailua | **$1,685,000** | +1% |
| Hawaii Kai | **$1,625,000** | -3% |
| Ewa Beach | **$930,000** | +4% |
(Source: Locations Hawaii, Feb 2026)
Condos: Buyers Have Options
| Metric | Feb 2026 | Feb 2025 | Change |
|---|
| Median price | **$500,000** | $494,000 | +1.2% |
| Closed sales | **291** | 293 | -0.7% |
| Median days on market | **56 days** | 48 days | +16.7% |
| Active inventory | **2,276** | ~2,160 | +5.4% |
| Pending sales | **354** | ~381 | -7.1% |
| Sold above asking | **12%** | — | — |
(Source: Honolulu Board of Realtors, Feb 2026)
The condo market is not in trouble — median prices are still rising — but sellers no longer hold all the cards. Buyers have more time to compare and negotiate in this segment, which is a meaningful shift. We think it creates some genuinely good opportunities for the right buyer.
The under-$400K segment is particularly interesting for first-time buyers: 786 active listings, up 27.6% from a year ago. That is the deepest inventory pool at the entry level we have seen in years.
Mortgage Rates: Below 6% Changes the Math
The 30-year fixed rate dropped to 5.98% on February 26 — the first time below 6% since September 2022 when it was 5.89%.
Have questions about this?
(808) 927-0508| Week Ending | 30-Year Fixed Rate |
|---|
| Feb 5 | 6.11% |
| Feb 12 | 6.09% |
| Feb 19 | 6.01% |
| **Feb 26** | **5.98%** |
(Source: Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey)
What does this mean in real dollars? On a $700,000 loan at 6.76% (last year's rate), your monthly principal and interest was $4,549. At 5.98%, it drops to $4,189 — a savings of $360 per month or $4,320 per year. That is not trivial. It is the difference between qualifying and not qualifying for many buyers.
What Drove February's Numbers
Three factors converged to create this market:
Cooling inflation. January 2026 CPI came in at 2.4% nationally — below the 2.5% expectation and down from 2.7% in December. Lower inflation pushed mortgage rates down, which brought sidelined buyers back into the market.
Tourism recovery. January 2026 saw 874,358 visitor arrivals (+10.4% year over year) and $2.3 billion in spending (+19.0%). Tourism directly affects Hawaii's housing market because it drives jobs, income, and investor confidence. (Source: DBEDT)
Military construction spending. The $3.42 billion Pearl Harbor dry dock project, which runs through at least 2027, continues to provide steady construction employment and housing demand. Hawaii receives approximately 8% of the national military construction budget — more than any other state. (Source: Hawaii Business Magazine)
What This Means for Buyers
The headline sounds intimidating — record prices — but the details reveal opportunities depending on what you are buying. If you are a condo buyer, especially in the under-$500K range, you are looking at the friendliest conditions since before the pandemic: 6.0 months of supply, 2,276 active listings, and sellers who are accepting offers below asking price. Pair that with rates below 6% and your purchasing power just went up meaningfully. If you are a first-time buyer, this is the window to move on a condo.
Single-family buyers face a tighter market, but the sub-6% rate changes the math. The $360/month savings compared to a year ago effectively adds $50,000–$60,000 to your buying power. VA buyers at Schofield or JBPHH should check our BAH rates guide to see how the rate drop affects your monthly budget.
What This Means for Sellers
If you own a single-family home, February confirmed what you probably already suspected: demand for your property type is strong and getting stronger. With only 2.8 months of supply, 17 days on market, and a quarter of sales closing above asking, you are in a historically strong position. But there is a catch — the homes selling fastest and highest are the ones that are priced correctly and staged well from day one. Overpricing in a strong market is still a mistake because buyers have data too.
Condo sellers need a different strategy. Your competition is 2,276 other listings. Staging, professional photography, and aggressive pricing are no longer optional — they are the difference between selling in 30 days and sitting for 90. Consider our guide on the cost to sell so there are no surprises.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is February 2026 the most expensive month ever for Oʻahu homes?
Yes. The $1,205,000 median single-family price set a new all-time record for Oʻahu, surpassing the previous high. However, context matters — this record was driven partly by a shrinking pool of affordable homes pulling the median upward, and partly by strong luxury sales at the top of the market. The actual homes most buyers are purchasing have not all suddenly become more expensive; the mix of what sold shifted upward. (Source: Honolulu Board of Realtors, Feb 2026)
Should I buy now or wait for rates to drop more?
Rates at 5.98% are already at their lowest point in nearly four years. Whether they continue falling depends on inflation data and Federal Reserve policy — both of which are unpredictable. What we can say is that lower rates tend to bring more buyers into the market, which pushes prices up. If rates drop to 5.5%, you might save $100/month on your mortgage, but the home itself could cost $30,000–$50,000 more because of increased competition. Trying to time both rates and prices simultaneously almost never works. If you are financially ready and plan to stay at least two to three years, the math works at 5.98%.
What happened to the condo market?
The condo market is not struggling — prices are still rising, up 1.2% year over year. But supply has expanded faster than demand. Active condo listings hit 2,276 (up 5.4% from last year) while pending sales actually dropped 7.1%. The result is a market where buyers have more choices and more leverage than they have had in years. For sellers, this means your condo is no longer competing with 5 other listings — it is competing with 20. Pricing precisely and presenting the unit well are no longer optional.
How does the record price affect military families using BAH?
The 2026 BAH rates for Oʻahu range from $2,598 to $5,040 per month depending on pay grade and dependency status. At the record $1,205,000 single-family median, a VA loan at 5.98% would carry a monthly payment of approximately $7,200 including taxes and insurance — above BAH for all but the highest-ranking officers. This is why most military families buying single-family homes on Oʻahu supplement their BAH with personal income, or focus on neighborhoods like Ewa Beach and Kapolei where median prices sit below $1M. Alternatively, condos at the $500,000 median carry payments around $3,500/month — within BAH range for E-7 and above with dependents.
Looking Ahead
March data is coming soon, and early indicators suggest a market that is still moving. Pending sales were up 4.7% for single-family homes, which means March closings should be solid. But mortgage rates started climbing again in early March after the February dip below 6%. The question for spring is whether the rate bump cools the momentum or whether Oʻahu's chronic shortage of homes keeps demand high regardless.
We will be back with the March update as soon as the data drops. If you want to discuss what any of this means for your specific situation — buying, selling, renting, or managing property — contact us or call (808) 927-0508. We answer 24/7.
