January is supposed to be a quiet month. Many markets cool down after the holidays, inventory piles up, and buyers take their time. Oʻahu opened 2026 a bit differently — at least for single-family homes. Here is what the numbers actually say, and what they mean for you.
⚡ Quick Take
- Single-family median: $1,122,500 (+0.2% YoY) — holding steady
- Condo median: $529,000 — slight softening creates opportunity
- Single-family supply: 2.8 months — still a seller's market
- 31% of single-family homes sold above asking price
- Pending sales up 14.4% — spring demand building early
Big Picture: Oʻahu in Two Speeds
The story of Oʻahu's January 2026 market is really two stories happening at the same time, and understanding the split is the key to making a smart move whether you are buying, selling, or just watching.
Single-family homes are behaving like it is still 2022. Inventory is tight — down 8.2% from a year ago — prices are essentially flat at $1,122,500, and nearly a third of homes are selling above asking price. That is not a market that is slowing down. That is a market where buyers are still competing hard for a limited pool of homes, and sellers are largely holding the cards.
Condos are a different animal entirely. Active listings climbed 5.8% year over year, months of supply hit 6.0 — which real estate economists define as a balanced or buyer-favorable market — and only 7% of condos sold above asking. The median dropped to $529,000, down 1.9% from January 2025. For buyers who have been priced out of single-family homes or just getting started on Oʻahu, that is actually meaningful news.
If you want a house with a yard, expect competition and seller-friendly terms. If you are open to a condo or townhome, you now have more choices, more time to decide, and more room to negotiate than at any point in the last few years. We are happy to walk you through what both options look like in today's market.
Single-Family Homes: Key Trends
| Metric | January 2026 |
|---|---|
| Median sale price | $1,122,500 |
| Active listings change (YoY) | -8.2% |
| Months of supply | 2.8 |
| Median days on market | 27 |
| Homes sold above asking price | 31% |
| Pending sales change (YoY) | +14.4% |
| Sales volume change (YoY) | -1.0% |
(Source: Honolulu Board of Realtors / HiCentral MLS, January 2026)
The headline number is deceptively quiet: +0.2% on the median price. That sounds like the market is barely moving. What it actually means is that single-family home values on Oʻahu are holding their ground even as interest rates remain elevated and affordability is stretched thin. Prices are not collapsing. They are not surging. They are locked in place — because supply is just as locked.
With only 2.8 months of supply, there are not enough homes to go around. Six months of supply is the industry benchmark for a balanced market. At 2.8 months, we are well inside seller territory, which explains why 31% of single-family transactions closed above the original asking price in January. These were not accidental bidding wars — buyers knew they were competing and came in accordingly.
The most telling number in the whole dataset is pending sales: up 14.4% year over year. Pending sales measure contracts signed but not yet closed. A jump that large in January — historically a slow month — signals that buyer demand is pulling forward into spring. People are not waiting for warmer weather or lower rates. They are locking in now.
Single-family home sellers are still in the driver's seat. Buyers can expect competition, especially for move-in-ready homes priced near market value. The 27-day average days on market means well-priced homes are not sitting around.
Condos & Townhomes: Key Trends
| Metric | January 2026 |
|---|---|
| Median sale price | $529,000 |
| Price range | $504,000–$529,000 |
| Active listings change (YoY) | +5.8% |
| Months of supply | 6.0 |
| Median days on market | 47 |
| Homes sold above asking price | 7% |
| Pending sales change (YoY) | +5.0% |
(Source: Honolulu Board of Realtors / HiCentral MLS, January 2026)
Six months of supply is not a crash — it is a reset. The condo market is returning to something closer to normal after years of pandemic-era frenzy. More choices, longer decision windows, and sellers who know they need to price competitively to move their unit. At 47 median days on market, condos are sitting roughly three weeks longer than single-family homes before they get an offer. That gap matters.
Have questions about this?
(808) 927-0508The $700,000–$899,999 price band in the condo market deserves special attention. This is where the most below-asking-price sales are concentrating. If you are looking at condos in that range — think newer Kakaako towers, larger Ala Moana units, or well-positioned Ko Olina resort condos — you have real leverage right now. Sellers in that tier are adjusting expectations, and buyers willing to come in informed can capture real value.
At the entry level, $504,000–$529,000, the picture is different. Affordable Oʻahu condos still attract strong interest from first-time buyers and VA buyers, so competition has not evaporated. But the overall market softness gives everyone a bit more breathing room than they had twelve months ago.
The condo market is the most buyer-friendly it has been in years. If you are flexible on property type, now is a reasonable time to explore what you can get. Sellers in this segment should be realistic about pricing — the days of receiving five offers in a weekend are behind us for now.
What This Means for Buyers
If your target is a single-family home, get your pre-approval squared away before you start seriously touring. With 31% of homes closing above asking and inventory down 8.2%, you will not have the luxury of taking a few weeks to think things over once you find the right place. Homes in Mililani, Kailua, and Ewa Beach that are priced well and in good condition are moving in under 30 days. Your offer needs to be clean, competitive, and ready to go.
For condo buyers, January's data is an invitation to take your time — but not too much time. The 14.4% jump in single-family pending sales suggests that buyers who cannot afford a house are already starting to seriously eye the condo market as a long-term alternative. Condo demand is up 5.0% in pending sales YoY too, which means the softness is not permanent. If you find a condo in the $504,000–$529,000 range that checks your boxes, the window of relative comfort is real but it has a clock on it.
For buyers in the $700,000–$899,999 condo range, come in with data. Pull recent comps, know what per-square-foot values look like for the building, and do not be afraid to offer below list on a unit that has been sitting for 45 or 60 days. The numbers support it. An experienced Oʻahu agent can run that analysis for you so your offer reflects market reality, not wishful thinking.
What This Means for Sellers
If you are selling a single-family home, your timing is good — but pricing discipline still matters. The common mistake sellers make in a low-inventory market is overreaching on list price because they know competition exists. That can backfire. Homes that come in overpriced sit longer, accumulate days on market, and often end up closing below what a well-priced listing would have fetched on day one. The 27-day average tells you that buyers are paying attention and moving quickly on homes they consider fairly priced.
Presentation matters more than sellers sometimes expect in Hawaii's market. Buyers are weighing six-figure decisions, and first impressions — both online in listing photos and in person on a showing — set the tone for offers. A single-family home that is staged thoughtfully, has fresh landscaping, and is photographed professionally will outperform an equivalent home that is not. This is what we consistently see in transaction data here on Oʻahu.
Condo sellers need a more patient strategy right now. With 6.0 months of supply and 47 days on market, the condo segment rewards sellers who price sharply from day one over those who list high and plan to reduce later. A price reduction after 30 or 45 days signals weakness to buyers and can attract lowball offers. Come in at or slightly below comparable recent sales, present the unit well, and let the market respond quickly. That approach will outperform a high-then-reduce strategy in the current environment.
Military Families: Your Specific Situation
Your BAH is one of the most powerful housing tools on the island, and the January market data changes how you should use it. With 2026 BAH rates ranging from roughly $3,663 per month for an E-5 with dependents to $4,959 for an O-5, you have real purchasing power — especially with a VA loan. At current interest rates, an O-3 or O-4 using their VA benefit can often carry a home in the $650,000–$750,000 range with a monthly payment that falls within or close to their BAH. Neighborhoods like Ewa Beach, Pearl City, and Mililani still have single-family homes and townhomes in that range, and they sit within reasonable commutes of Pearl Harbor-Hickam and Schofield Barracks.
The VA loan advantage is especially sharp right now in the condo market. Because VA loans require no down payment and no PMI, you are entering the softening condo segment with the strongest possible financing position. If you are stationed at MCB Hawaii and looking at Kailua or Kaneohe condos in the $500,000–$600,000 range, your VA loan means you are not competing against conventional buyers who need to bring 20% down. That is a real structural edge in a market where sellers want certainty. Work with a VA-approved lender who has closed deals on Oʻahu and understands the local market.
Looking Ahead: Spring 2026
Oʻahu real estate has a seasonal rhythm, and spring is when volume picks up. Families with school-age children want to close before summer. Military families with summer PCS orders are lining up. The pending sales number — up 14.4% in January — confirms that buyers are already getting ahead of the season. If you are planning to buy or sell before summer, the time to act is now, not in March.
What to watch: if interest rates pull back even modestly in Q1 or Q2, expect single-family demand to accelerate quickly. There is a pool of buyers who have been sitting on the sidelines waiting for a rate signal. Any meaningful movement could compress inventory further and push prices back into growth territory. On the condo side, watch whether the $700,000–$899,999 softness begins to resolve as spring brings more buyer activity. If pending sales in that range tick up, the window for below-ask deals starts to close. The data right now favors decisive action over waiting to see what happens.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is the Oʻahu market slowing down or staying strong?
It depends on which segment you are asking about. Single-family homes are holding strong — median price up 0.2% YoY, inventory down 8.2%, and 31% of homes selling above asking price. That is not a slowing market; that is a tight one. The condo segment has softened, with supply up 5.8%, days on market at 47, and only 7% of condos selling above asking. Overall, Oʻahu real estate is not collapsing — it is splitting by property type, and your strategy needs to reflect which market you are actually in.
Are condos a good opportunity for buyers right now?
Yes, with appropriate expectations. The condo market is the most buyer-friendly it has been since before the pandemic. Six months of supply, longer days on market, and a 1.9% median price decline means you have more choices and more negotiating room than at any point in recent years. The $700,000–$899,999 range in particular is showing the most below-ask transactions. That said, this is not a distressed market — sellers are not panicking, and well-priced condos in desirable buildings still attract interest. Opportunity exists, but it requires knowing which buildings and price points offer real value versus which are overpriced for the current conditions.
What does 2.8 months of supply mean for buyers?
Months of supply measures how long it would take to sell all the current active listings at the current pace of sales, assuming no new listings came to market. Think of it like a store's inventory: six months of supply means the shelves are stocked normally. At 2.8 months, the shelves are nearly empty. Buyers are competing over a limited selection, which pushes prices up and gives sellers more leverage. Anything below four months is generally considered a seller's market. At 2.8 months for single-family homes on Oʻahu, you should expect to move quickly, compete against other buyers, and write clean offers without excessive contingencies if you want to win.
Should I wait to buy or buy now?
Here is the honest answer: waiting for a perfect moment on Oʻahu rarely works out the way buyers hope. The island has a finite amount of land. Population pressure and a chronic shortage of buildable lots keep a structural floor under prices. If you wait for rates to drop, prices may rise. If you wait for prices to drop, rates may have already moved. What the January data shows is that the single-family market is not softening — supply is shrinking further — while the condo market is currently offering more options than it has in years. If you are financially ready, have your VA loan or pre-approval sorted, and are planning to stay on Oʻahu for at least two to three years, buying now with the right guidance is a reasonable decision. If your finances are not in order or your tour length is uncertain, take the time to get those pieces right first.